我国农户消费理性行为的实证研究

本文利用偏自相关函数（PACF）、DF检验、工具变量法（IV）等分析方法,对农户的消费行为进行了实证分析,得出农户消费在统计上是符合随机游走假说的,但实际上有0．223的偏差．1阶滞后以后的农户消费对当期消费仍具有一定的负向影响。根据实证分析结果,在农户消费的增加额中．有47．6％来自农户当期收入的增加,有52．4％来自农户持久收入的增加。因此,虽然理性都是有限的,但与西方典型消费者相比,我国农户呈现出了更多“有限理性”的特点。针对我国农户消费行为,为了开拓农村市场,应该提高农民素质、完善农村市场、改善农村消费环境。

The Empirical Analysis of Chinese Household Rational Consumption Behavior

The article empirically analyzes household consumption behavior by use of PACF, DF test and instrumental variable method. Household consumption behavior is up to random walking hypothesis statistically, in fact, there is a deviation of 0.223, more than first-order differences also have negative influence on contemporary consumption. According to the empir- ical analysis conclusion, there is forty sever point six percent of household consumption increase due to the increase of household contemporary income, the other is due to the increase of permanent income. Therefore, although rational is bounded, Chinese household appear more bounded rationality by contrast to western classical consumers. So, in order to expand rural market, the government should take measure to improve peasants diathesis, perfect rural markets, renew rural consumption en- vironment.