开放条件下不同泰勒规则在中国的适用性研究

通过构建开放经济条件下同时存在后顾性变量和前瞻性变量的新凯恩斯主义DSGE模型,利用MATLAB随机数值模拟比较分析三种不同泰勒规则在中国的应用性问题。结果表明,总需求冲击加剧了产出的波动,而总供给冲击不利于通货膨胀的稳定。比较福利后,发现简单的名义利率泰勒规则比复杂的泰勒规则更加适合于中国目前的经济发展状况。央行在设定目标损失函数时,应该减少汇率的权重,而增加通货膨胀的权重,这有利于减少中国居民整体福利的损失。

Research on Application of Different Taylor Rules in China under Open Economy

This paper reveals a DSGE model of new Keynesian in open economy with forward-looking and backw ard-looking variables which is used to analyze applied problem of three different kinds of Taylor rules in China through random simulation of MATLAB. The findings are that the total demand shocks having the biggest influence on output,and the influencing of total supply shocks on inflation is the largest. Welfare analysis shows that simple nominal interest rates Taylor rule is more suitable than complex Taylor rules to regulate macro-economy. In setting loss function,the weight of exchange rate should be reduced and the weight of inflation should be increased,which helps to reduce overall welfare loss.