基于粗糙集方法的广东省粮食产量影响因素分析

粮食的生产一直受到我国政府的高度关注与重视。农业经济学界已有不少论文对于各省区，采用不同的统计分析方法，来分析粮食生产的主要影响因素，其中最常用的是主成分分析，此方法存在一定的局限性。为了能从大量的、不完全的数据中找到隐含的、有价值的信息，该文总结了广东省的粮食生产概况，选用数据挖掘中的粗糙集方法，以1996～2012年的统计年鉴中的数据为基础，选取了乡村劳动力、耕地面积、农业机械动力、灌溉面积、化肥用量等17项与广东省粮食产量相关的因素进行分析。研究结果表明，对于广东省粮食产量影响较大的因素有化肥用量、水库总容量以及人均经营耕地面积。从分析来看，近年来广东省粮食产量并未随着化肥用量和水库总容量的增大而增加，但人均经营耕地面积对于产量的增加有着正面影响。针对这些问题，给出了稳定粮食播种面积，改良耕地质量，加强农田水利建设，加大农业科技投入，转移农村富余劳动力的建议。

ANALYSIS OF INFLUENCING FACTORS OF GRAIN YIELDS IN GUANGDONG PROVINCE BASED ON ROUGH SET THEORY

The production of grain has been always attracted more attention by Chinese government. Agricultural economic circles have published many papers for studying the primary influencing factors of different provinces and regions always by choosing statistical analysis method, such as principal component analysis, but it has some limitations. In order to find some hidden and valuable information from massive and imperfect data, this paper, based on the data from 1996 to 2012 statistical yearbook, summed up the grain production situation of Guangdong, analyzed the relationships of these 17 factors (i.e., the rural labor force, agricultural acreage, agricultural machinery force, irrigated area, the amount of chemical fertilizer, etc.) on the output of grain by choosing the rough set analysis tool of data mining. The result showed the prime factors for Guangdong were the amount of chemical fertilizer, the total reservoir storage, the area of cultivated land per person. The output of grain in Guangdong Province didn't follow the amount of chemical fertilizer and the total reservoir storage, but it was positively influenced by the area of cultivated land per person. For these reasons, the paper put forward some advice, including keeping agricultural acreage steady; improving the quality of field; enhancing the construction of farmland irrigation and water conservancy; increasing investment to agricultural science and technology, and transferring spare country labor.