中国第三产业发展与就业增长关系的实证研究

根据发达国家经济发展经验,第三产业的发展能够有效地拉动就业的增加。同样就业的增加也会反过来拉动经济的发展。通过对第三产业经济增长和就业关系进行ADF检验、协整关系检验和格兰杰因果关系检验,发现第三产业增长率与其就业增长率之间存在长期稳定的关系;第三产业劳动力就业增长率是第三产业增长率的格兰杰原因,反之则不成立,即中国第三产业就业规模的扩大将不断地为第三产业创造更多的增加值,但是第三产业产值的增加并不能明显地带动就业的增长。

The Empirical Study on the Relationship Between the Development of the Third Industry and Job Growth in China

The successful experiences of western countries show that the development of the third industry can increase employment effectively,and the increase of employment can accelerate the development of economy.We employ ADF test,Johansen test,and Granger causes and consequences analysis,and find that there are long-term stability between the growth rate of the third industry and the growth rate of its employment;the growth rate of employment is the Granger cause of the growth rate of the third industry,but there is no a two-way causal relationship between them.In other word,the continuing enlargement of employment in the third industry will creating economic added value for the third industry,however,the third industry value added can＇t improve the emloyment.