我国经济转轨期软预算约束与通货膨胀分析

本文采用我国1989～2009年经济转轨时期的数据,对联立方程模型参数进行了重新估计,估计结果显示预算软约束依然是通货膨胀产生的原因之一,但是转轨时期软预算约束正逐步向硬约束转变,这个转变对社会消费尤其是居民消费产生很大影响。然后对2009年以来的通货膨胀问题与软预算约束以及结构扭曲之间的关系进行了研究,研究发现这一轮的物价上涨与经济结构严重失衡有密切的关系,并且预算软约束的存在使财政赤字和国债负担扩大,给经济运行带来了隐患和风险。

Analysis of Soft Budget Constraint and Inflation in the Transition Economy

Using the data of China’s economic transition period,this paper re-estimates the coefficients of the simultaneous-equations econometrics model that is designed by Zhang Shouyi in 1990.We find that the soft budget constraint is still one of the cause of inflation,but it is gradually changing into hard constraints.This change has brought serious effect to resident consumption.Then we discuss the inflation and the relationshi Pbetween soft budget constraint and the structural distortions since 2009.The result shows that the rising prices are closely related with the serious imbalance economic structure.Because of the soft budget constraint,the increasing of the budget deficit and treasury bonds brings hidden trouble and risk to economy.