Bond pricing when the short-term interest rate follows a threshold process |
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Authors: | Wolfgang Lemke Theofanis Archontakis |
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Institution: | 1. Economics Department , Deutsche Bundesbank , Wilhelm-Epstein-Str. 14, Frankfurt 60431, Germany lemke_wolfgang@yahoo.de;3. Graduate Program ‘Finance &4. Monetary Economics’, Goethe University Frankfurt , Uni-PF77, 60054 Frankfurt am Main, Germany |
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Abstract: | This paper derives analytical solutions for arbitrage-free bond yields when the short-term interest rate follows an autoregressive process with the intercept switching endogenously. This process from the SETAR family is especially suited to capture the near-unit-root behaviour typically observed in the evolution of short-term interest rates. The derived yield functions, mapping the one-month rate into n-period yields, exhibit a convex/concave shape to the left and right of the threshold value, respectively, a pattern which is also found in US bond yield data. The longer the time to maturity, the more distinct the nonlinearity of the yield function becomes. |
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Keywords: | Bond pricing Term structure of interest rates Threshold models |
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