Multi-scale interaction in local scenario-building: A methodological framework

Despite the recent popularity of multi-scale scenario exercises, a review of the literature reveals missing elements regarding local-scale scenario-building. Scenarios built at the local level are often downscaled from higher-scale scenarios or developed within the boundary conditions of global and national scales without taking local circumstances thoroughly into account. On this background, this paper discusses the issue of scale in local scenario development and develops a formal methodological approach for local-scale scenario-building in general. The paper underlines in particular the role of local agency in coupling the larger scale and the local scale. To better illustrate how the proposed approach helps in designing local scenarios, lessons drawn from two local scenario development practices are also employed. Hence, the paper contributes to the formalisation of local scenario-building, which is believed to enhance the validity and credibility of local scenario outputs in the policy sphere.