基于实物期权的地铁项目可行性研究

本文对地铁地产物业投资特性进行分析,从中找出地铁地产物业投资中所蕴涵的实物期权特性,提出地铁地产物业投资为一个欧氏看涨期权,并通过对B-S模型进行修正,得到地铁地产物业投资的实物期权模型,并对其进行实证,得出考虑了项目期权价值在内的项目总价值大于传统的净现值评估价值。因此,将实物期权运用于地铁地产物业投资决策领域,是充分地考虑了开发商的决策灵活性,使项目投资决策更接近于项目实际情况,也将有助于提高投资决策的正确性。期权价格对开发商和政府双方都更有利的是混合补偿的形式,能够在保障开发商利益的同时解决他们的在单纯地铁运营的亏损问题。

Metro's feasibility research basing on practicality options

There existmany problems in present investment decision-making of MTR based on real options, such as great errors of the existing methods, in exactness of pricing investment decision-making etc. This paper analyzes the subway property investment characteristics of MTR and find property investments are embraced by real options. MTRC property investment can be viewed as a European call option, and through modified B-S model, we get a real options modelpricing MTRC property. With empritical research we can conclude that the total project value considering the option value is greater than the net present value of traditional assessment value. Therefore, the application of real options MTR property investment is fully consider the development flexibility in decision-making, allow the project investment decision-making closer to the actual situation, that will also help to improve the accuracy of investment decision. Option price are more favorable for both the developers and the government which protecting of interests of the developers to solve their problem of losses in a simple subway operation.