2004年至2006年银行信贷增速变化的实证分析

从贷款需求和资本约束两个角度对2004年至2006年＂我国经济高速增长、贷款低速扩张＂的实证分析表明：从经济增长、货币松紧程度、替代融资方式发展等需求因素难以对该时期贷款增速大幅度回落做出合理的解释;严格资本监管为银行信贷扩张设置了额外的约束条件,不同资本监管环境下银行对宏观经济环境变化、货币松紧程度的反应方式和程度存在明显差异,资本约束是银行贷款扩张速度下降的主要原因,这一措施有效地配合了近年来宏观调控政策的实施;由于银行主要通过增加监管资本的方式提高资本充足率,因而严格资本约束并未导致严重信贷紧缩。

An Empirical Analysis on the Loan Growth From 2004 to 2006

From 2004 to 2006, Chinese economy maintained a rapid momentum of growth. However, the speed of credit expansion witnessed an obvious slowdown during this period. The empirical analysis from the perspectives of loan demand and capital constraints respectively suggested that such elements as the economic growth, monetary policy and alternative financing channel could not effectively explain the slowdown of the loan growth;at the same time, the rigid capital regulation has set additional constraints for the credit growth, and under different capital regulatory framework, banks reacted differently to the changes in macroeconomic environment and monetary policy. As a consequence, capital constraint became an important factor that lead to the slowdown of loan growth. The capital regulation went along with other macroeconomic policies very well between 2004 and 2006. Because commercial banks raised their capital adequacy ratios by means of increasing regulatory capital, therefore, strict capital constraints had not led to severe credit crunch during this period.