产业集聚与城市生态效率动态关系研究

基于2004-2016年285个城市面板数据，运用静态面板、动态面板及面板门槛模型，从整体趋势、时间效应及非线性结构3个方面分析不同产业集聚模式差异与城市生态效率间的动态关系。结果显示，生产性服务业尤其是高端生产性服务的专业化及多样化集聚会在短期抑制生态效率提升，但长期促进作用显著；生产性服务业与制造业协同集聚对生态效率的改进效果相比单一产业集聚更为显著；不同产业集聚模式对生态效率的作用存在门槛效应，两者之间呈现显著倒U型关系，且存在集聚最优值；城市规模对产业集聚与城市生态效率的关系呈负向调节作用。因此，在城市生态经济规划建设中，应加大高端生产性服务业建设投入力度，关注生产性服务业与制造业融合，根据城市基础条件制定相应的产业转移战略，且不可集聚过度，注重发挥产业集聚对城市生态建设的正向促进作用。

Research on Dynamic Relationship between Industrial Agglomeration and Urban Ecological Efficiency

Based on the panel data of 285 cities in 2004-2016, static panel, dynamic panel and panel threshold model are used to analyze the different dynamic relationship. between different industrial agglomeration models and urban eco efficiency from three aspects: overall trend, time effect and nonlinear structure. The research results show that the specialization and diversification of the producer service industry, especially the high end production service, inhibits the improvement of eco efficiency in the short term, but it is significantly promoted in the long run; the synergy of the producer service industry and the manufacturing industry improves the eco efficiency. The effect is more significant than a single industry agglomeration. The effect of different industrial agglomeration models on eco efficiency has a threshold effect, and there is a significant inverted U shaped structure relationship between the two, and there is an optimal value of agglomeration. And the scale of the city has a negative adjustment effect on the industrial agglomeration and the improvement of urban ecological efficiency. Therefore, in the urban eco economic planning and construction, we should increase investment to focus on the construction of high end productive service industry, pay attention to the integration of productive service industry and manufacturing industry according to local conditions, and formulate corresponding industrial transfer strategies according to urban basic conditions, and it is not possible to accumulate excessively. Pay attention to the positive promotion of industrial agglomeration in urban ecological construction.