Growth Accelerations |
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Authors: | Ricardo Hausmann Lant Pritchett Dani Rodrik |
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Institution: | (1) John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, USA;(2) The World Bank, USA |
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Abstract: | Unlike most cross country growth analyses, we focus on turning points in growth performance. We look for instances of rapid
acceleration in economic growth that are sustained for at least 8 years and identify more than 80 such episodes since the
1950s. Growth accelerations tend to be correlated with increases in investment and trade, and with real exchange rate depreciations.
Political-regime changes are statistically significant predictors of growth accelerations. External shocks tend to produce
growth accelerations that eventually fizzle out, while economic reform is a statistically significant predictor of growth
accelerations that are sustained. However, growth accelerations tend to be highly unpredictable: the vast majority of growth
accelerations are unrelated to standard determinants and most instances of economic reform do not produce growth accelerations. |
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Keywords: | economic reform growth episodes |
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