| 区域旅游交通需求预测研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 李娟.区域旅游交通需求预测研究[J].铁道运输与经济,2005,27(4):77-79. |
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| 作者姓名： | 李娟 |
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| 作者单位： | 西南交通大学,交通运输学院,四川,成都,610031 |
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| 摘 要： | 分析旅游需求的特点,对区域旅游景区进行分类,分别预测客源范围的旅游需求,根据旅游区的旅游阻抗,采用概率模型计算各旅游区或景区的旅游需求,在出行结构的基础上,得到旅游交通需求的预测值,并通过实例对旅游交通需求进行预测,为旅游道路网的规划提供依据。
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| 关 键 词： | 区域旅游 交通需求 预测 概率模型 研究 |
| 文章编号： | 1003-1421(2005)04-0077-02 |
| 修稿时间： | 2004年11月15 |
Studying the Traffic Demand Forecast for Regional Tourism |
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| LI Juan.Studying the Traffic Demand Forecast for Regional Tourism[J].Rail Way Transport and Economy,2005,27(4):77-79. |
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| Authors: | LI Juan |
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| Abstract: | The paper analyzes the characteristics of tourism demand andclassifies regional tourist sceneries. It then forecasts the tourist demand ofpassengers within the region. According to the tourist resistance of tourist area,the tourist demand of each tourist area/scenery can be calculated by probabilitymodel. Based on the structure of travel means, the forecasting value of touristtraffic demand can be obtained. Furthermore, the paper carries out a practicalforecast on tourist traffic demand and provides references to the planning oftourist path network. |
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| Keywords: | regional tourism traffic demand forecast probability model study |
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