新疆畜禽粪污排放时空演变特征及预警分析基于85个县市数据

目的 探究新疆县市畜禽粪污空间分布与时空演变特征，并对农用地（包括耕地、园地、人工牧草地）畜禽粪便氮磷污染风险进行预警，为优化新疆农牧业空间布局，科学开展畜禽粪污资源化利用整县推进工作提供理论依据。方法 文章采用1988—2017年统计数据，选用排泄系数法估算新疆85个县市畜禽粪污产生量，并利用ArcGIS分析空间分布及时空演变特征，进一步根据2017年新疆县市农用地作物粪肥养分需求来进行环境风险预警。结果 （1）1988—2017年新疆县市畜禽粪污产生总量变化呈现出上升—下降交替波动的特征，牛、羊为粪污产生量主要来源。（2）从分布与演变看，粪污在北疆县市及南疆部分县市分布较多，且在向北增加，南疆县市分布变化不大，东疆县市一直以来分布较少。（3）以氮、磷为计，分别有44.7%、40%的县市预警值均大于1，实际畜禽养殖总量都超过了环境容量，环境风险为较严重或严重。结论 应根据不同县市粪污分布及预警情况选择不同的种养优化与布局方案，多途径提高牛羊养殖效率，提升牛羊粪污资源化利用水平，因地制宜选择粪污资源化利用模式。

ANALYSIS ON THE TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL EVOLUTION AND EARLY WARNING OF LIVESTOCK AND POULTRY DEPRESS DISCHARGE IN XINJIANGBASED ON 85 COUNTIES AND CITIES DATA

This paper aims to probe into the spatial distribution and spatiotemporal evolution of livestock and poultry manure in Xinjiang counties and cities, and give an early warning of the risk of nitrogen and phosphorus pollution in livestock and poultry manure in agricultural land (including cultivated land, garden land and artificial pasture land).Based on the statistics from 1988 to 2017, the paper used the excretion coefficient method to estimate the amount of livestock and poultry manure produced in 85 counties and cities of Xinjiang, and used the ArcGIS to analyze the spatial distribution and spatial and temporal evolution characteristics, and further carried on the environmental risk early warning according to the crop manure nutrient demand of agricultural land in Xinjiang county and city in 2017. The results were listed as follows. (1) From 1988 to 2017, the total amount of livestock and poultry manure produced in Xinjiang counties and cities showed the characteristics of rising-declining fluctuation, and cattle and sheep were the main sources of manure production. (2) In terms of distribution and evolution, manure was distributed more in the north and some counties and cities in the south. (3) In terms of nitrogen and phosphorus, 44.7 per cent of counties and 40 per cent of counties and cities respectively had early warning values greater than 1, and the actual total amount of livestock and poultry breeding exceeded the environmental capacity, and the environmental risk was more serious or serious. Therefore, according to the distribution and early warning of manure in different counties and cities, we should select different planting and breeding optimization and layout schemes, improve the efficiency of cattle and sheep breeding, improve the utilization level of cattle and sheep manure resources, and select the utilization mode of manure resources according to local conditions.