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中国与东亚和美国贸易差额联动效应分析
引用本文:范爱军,刘馨遥. 中国与东亚和美国贸易差额联动效应分析[J]. 南开经济研究, 2010, 0(6)
作者姓名:范爱军  刘馨遥
摘    要:中国对东亚国家(地区)的贸易长期处于逆差状态,而同时对美国却保持高额顺差。本文通过实证分析认为,中国对东亚的贸易逆差及对美国的贸易顺差之间存在联动效应,并从雁行模式的东亚产业转移、东亚生产网络及美国需求三方面分析了该联动效应产生的原因。还探讨了差额联动的变化趋势:长期看,由于中国在三角贸易中的地位将有所改变,差额联动效应有望减弱;短期看,差额联动效应仍将存在。
Abstract:
China has always been keeping trade deficit with East Asia,but keeping trade sur-plus with America at the same time.The paper proves a coupling effect between the trade surplus and deficit by positive analysis,and analyses the reason why a coupling effect can exist from three aspects:East Asian industrial transfer in flying geese model,East Asian production net-works and American demand.The paper also discusses the trend of coupling effect:in the long run,the effect is expected to reduce since the position of China in triangular trade pattern will be changed;in the short term,the effect will still exist.

关 键 词:贸易差额  联动效应  生产网络

The Coupling Effect of Trade Balance Among China,East Asia and America
Abstract:China has always been keeping trade deficit with East Asia,but keeping trade sur-plus with America at the same time.The paper proves a coupling effect between the trade surplus and deficit by positive analysis,and analyses the reason why a coupling effect can exist from three aspects:East Asian industrial transfer in flying geese model,East Asian production net-works and American demand.The paper also discusses the trend of coupling effect:in the long run,the effect is expected to reduce since the position of China in triangular trade pattern will be changed;in the short term,the effect will still exist.
Keywords:Balance of Trade  Coupling Effect  Production Networks
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