关于大坝风险的Vague集事故树的评价模型

本模型主要从对大坝风险评价的角度出发,对导致大坝风险的元素及其逻辑关系进行分析。首先,利用可靠度的知识对大坝系统的失效概率进行分析。然后,结合事故树模型,使大坝的风险元素间的逻辑关系多元化,并对风险元素间的关系应用Vague集理论进行模糊化处理,利用客观数据进行评价,使评价更加客观。最后,模型给出了评价的结果,并进行了讨论。

Dam Risk Assessment Model Based on Fault Tree and Vague Sets Theory

Based on fault tree and vague set theory, an model of evaluating criteria of dam risk, in order to improve deficiency of traditional assessment method, such as lack of fuzziness and flexibility, and to be used for making safety and reliability evaluation for complex systems, is put forward. First, with quantitative analysis of the fault tree, the failure probability of top events is determined through calculating those of the basic events of the fault tree. Second, vague sets of the basic events of the fault tree are confirmed according to the failure probability of top events. Third, vague sets of top events are acquired via those of the basic events. At last, the model is analyzed and an example is given to show its application.