World Oil Depletion Models: Price effects compared with strategic or technological interventions |
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Authors: | R A M |
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Institution: | aUniversity of Padua, Department of Statistical Sciences, via C. Battisti 241, 35100 Padua, Italy;bUniversity of Padua, Department of Economics, via del Santo 33, 35100 Padua, Italy |
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Abstract: | World oil depletion, including natural gas liquids, was modelled in the past by many authors. Recently, Guseo and Dalla Valle have introduced and Guidolin has applied a new approach following perturbed life-cycle diffusion models. Here we examine joint effects of economic and strategic or technological interventions using a Generalized Bass Model (GBM). Statistical analysis takes into account three different hierarchical levels: natural diffusion, long memory interventions and stochastic components. The main results confirm the statistical significance of historical 1970s shocks and highlight a strong long memory effect due to an increase in oil production after World War II. The estimated peak-date, 2007, and the 90% depletion time, 2019, are determined under an equilibrium intervention hypothesis. |
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Keywords: | Oil peak Depletion times Oil price elasticity Diffusion process Generalized Bass model Nonlinear models ARMAX |
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