收入再分配效应的测度及其影响因素分析

运用我国部分省份城镇居民的收入分组数据,初步测算了个人因缴纳所得税和社会保障费而产生的收入再分配效应。测算结果表明,在绝大多数年份和省份,收入再分配效应都是负值,说明各省的收入再分配非但没有起到缩小收入差距的作用,反而使收入差距进一步扩大。在实证研究中,运用混合最小二乘法和面板PCSE方法对全部样本和按收入分组的两个分样本进行的检验表明,在低收入组,政府财政收入状况是决定收入再分配水平的主要因素;在高收入组,宏观经济波动、经济体制状况、城市化、人口老龄化、失业率和收入不平等是影响再分配的重要因素。分位数回归显示,在收入再分配程度低的地区,再分配对宏观经济波动、人均收入水平和政府财政收入状况更加敏感;在收入再分配程度高的地区,再分配对分配之前的收入不平等、经济体制状况、城市化水平及人口的年龄结构更加敏感。

The Calculation of Redistribution Effect and Analysis of its Influencing Factors

The paper applies the income group dates of urban residents in some provinces,preliminarily calculates the redistribution effects caused by personal income tax and social security fees.The result that the redistribution effects in most years and provinces are negative reflects the redistribution in these provinces does not narrow the income gap,and even worsen it.In the empirical analysis,the paper at first uses the pooled OLS and PCSE methods to estimate and find that in the low income group,the revenue determines the level of redistribution;while in the high income group,macroeconomic fluctuation,economic system,urbanization,ageing population and the unemployment rate and the income inequality are important factors for redistribution.Through quantile regression,the author finds that in the regions where redistribution effect is weak,redistribution is more sensitive to macroeconomic fluctuation,per capital GDP and the revenue;while in the regions where redistribution effect is strong,redistribution is more sensitive to income inequality before redistribution,economic system,urbanization and the age structure of population.