战时投资需求变动影响的量化评估研究

高消耗、高投入的现代战争,使战时的国民经济运行面临诸多挑战。投资作为国民经济发展的重要推动力量,战时面临着投资环境恶化、政府投资挤出和资本外逃撤离等因素的影响。假设2008年我国爆发局部战争,我们从挤出效应和资本外逃两个方面,衡量战时投资需求变动的规模以及对国民经济发展造成的影响,并根据测算的结果,提出政策建议。

Quantification and Assessment Study on Effect of Variation about Investment Demand of Wartime

High consumption and input are the most distinct feature of a modern war.It makes the national economy faced much more challenges at wartime.As a major driving force of the national economy,investment is faced with the impact of the deterioration of the investment environment,crowding-out effects of governmental expenditure and the capital flight.Suppose a regional war was exploded in 2008,the paper measures the size of investment disruption and the economic impact of war from the perspective of crowding-out effect and capital flight.According to the calculation results,the paper presents some politlcal suggestions in its tail.