制度距离、相邻效应与双边贸易--基于“一带一路”国家空间面板模型的实证分析

制度在双边贸易中具有举足轻重的作用。文章首次将相邻效应引入传统的制度与贸易关系的分析框架，运用空间面板模型深入考察了制度距离、相邻效应对中国与“一带一路”国家双边贸易的影响。结果表明，中国与“一带一路”沿线国家之间在文化、法律、宏观经济制度以及微观经济制度方面的差异显著抑制了双边进出口贸易的发展，并且这种抑制作用在长期更为显著。进一步引入相邻效应的分析表明，中国与“一带一路”沿线国家之间的双边贸易受到中国与沿线国家邻国之间贸易的制约，即相邻效应表现为竞争关系，并且无论是针对进口贸易还是出口贸易而言，中国与沿线国家之间的制度距离均强化了相邻效应的“竞争”作用，但上述作用在不同地区具有显著差异。因此，在推进“一带一路”战略时，中国需要考虑制定相关的配套政策来平衡中国与“一带一路”国家，特别是与这些两两相邻国家之间的双边贸易利益，以促进中国与各国双边贸易关系的良性发展。

Institutional Distance,Neighboring Effects and Bilateral Trade:An Empirical Analysis Based on Spatial Panel Model of “One Belt and One Road”Countries

Institution plays a decisive role in bilateral trade.This paper introduces the neighboring effect into traditional analytical model of the relationship between institution and trade for the first time,and applies spatial panel model to deeply investigate the effects of institutional distance and neighboring effect on bilateral trade between China and “One Belt and One Road”countries.The results show that the differences in culture,law,mac-ro-economic system and micro-economic system between China and “One Belt and One Road”countries significantly inhibit the development of bilateral trade,and this inhibition role is more significant in the long term.The analysis further introducing neighboring effect shows that bilateral trade between China and “One Belt and One Road”countries is constrained by the trade between China and neighboring countries of “One Belt and One Road” countries, namely neighboring effect embodies competitive relationship.And whether for import trade or for export trade,institutional distances between China and“One Belt and One Road”countries strengthen the “competition”role of neighboring effect,but the role abovementioned differs widely in areas.Therefore,with the promotion of “One Belt and One Road”strategy,China needs to formulate related matching policies to balance China and “One Belt and One Road”countries,especially bilateral trade inter-ests between China and these neighboring countries,to advance the sound development of the bilateral trade relationships between China and “One Belt and One Road”countries.