人民币汇率潜在升值的影响因素与预测

本文从回顾汇率理论入手,分析了人民币汇率潜在升值的影响因素,并对其走向进行了预测。认为分析某一个具体汇率时,不能简单地直接借用某一种汇率理论,而必须从根本上全面考虑汇率决定的影响因素;人民币目前的升值压力主要来自人为因素和制度因素,而不是经济基本面因素。因此,对人民币未来走势的基本预测是:稳定是基本格局,随着综合国力的进一步加强,会有一定程度的升值,但不可能出现突然的、跳跃性的升降。

Affecting Factors and Prediction of Potential Appreciation of Exchange Rate of Renminbi

In recent years, exchange rate of Renminbi has been the focus of world economy. The determination of exchange rate will have important effects on our economic development. From tracing back theories of exchange rate, this article analyzes the affecting factors of potential appreciation of exchange rate of Renminbi and predicts its tendency. This author thinks we could not use a kind of exchange rate theory directly to analyze an exchange rate and we must think about affecting factors determining this exchange rate basically; the pressure of appreciation of Renminbi comes from man-made factors and system factors, not economic essential factors. Therefore, he predicts the stable situation is the main tendency exchange rate of Renminbi and there will be appreciation pressure of it with the strengthen of national power, but there will not be sudden and sharp fluctuations of it.