技术进步对中国就业影响的实证研究

选取1978—2008年中国30个省市的面板数据,运用DEA方法测算中国的全要素生产率及其分解项:技术变化与技术效率,并使用ARDL模型实证分析技术效率和技术变化对就业的影响。研究发现:技术效率无论是长期还是短期都对就业具有显著的抑制效应,但在短期中,技术变化当期对就业没有显著影响;而滞后期技术变化的改善也会对就业人数的增加产生抑制效应,同时,在长期中,技术变化对就业有着显著的促进效应,可以带动就业量的增加。

An Empirical Study on the Impact of Technological Progress on Employment in China

The article selected the 1978—2008 panel data of 30 provinces and cities in our country,using DEA method to measure the total factor productivity and its decomposition：technological change and technical efficiency,and use the ARDL model empirical analysis on the influence of the technical efficiency and technical change on employment.Articles found that technical efficiency both in long-term and short-term has significant inhibitory effect on employment,but in the short term,the technology change current no significant impact on employment;Improved and lag technology changes also have inhibition effect on the increase of employment,at the same time,in the long run,the technical change on employment has obvious promoting effect,can lead to an increase in employment.