| 物流业与三次产业发展的互动关系实证研究 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 甘信华,刘峰.物流业与三次产业发展的互动关系实证研究[J].物流技术,2012,31(1):39-41,44. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 甘信华 刘峰 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 1. 常州工学院经济与管理学院,江苏常州213003;
2. 常州工学院机电工程学院,江苏常州,213003 |
| |
| 摘 要： | 以物流业和三次产业为研究对象,运用计量经济理论的模型和方法,对中国1978～2009年物流业与三个产业发展的协整与因果互动机制进行了实证分析。研究结果表明:从协整检验和误差修正模型看,中国物流业与三次产业之间呈现出比较稳定的长期均衡发展趋势,短期波动也起着正的影响作用;从格兰杰因果关系检验看,中国物流业与第一产业和第二产业有单向的因果关系,与第三产业有双向因果关系。
|
| 关 键 词： | 物流业 三次产业 协整检验 格兰杰因果检验 向量误差修正模型 |
An Empirical Study on the Interactive Relationship between Logistics Industry and the Tertiary Industries |
| |
| GAN Xin-hua
,
LIU Feng.An Empirical Study on the Interactive Relationship between Logistics Industry and the Tertiary Industries[J].Logistics Technology,2012,31(1):39-41,44. |
| |
| Authors: | GAN Xin-hua LIU Feng |
| |
| Institution: | 1.School of Economics & Management,Changzhou Institute of Technology,Changzhou 213003; 2.School of Electronical & Mechanical Engineering,Changzhou Institute of Technology,Changzhou 213003,China) |
| |
| Abstract: | The logistics industry and the tertiary industries as the study objects,the paper uses the models and methods of econometrics to analyze the co-integration and causal mechanism of the interaction between the development of the logistics industry and the tertiary industries.The result shows that the co-integration test and vector error correction model indicate there exists a relatively stable equilibrium state between the development of the logistics industry and the tertiary industries in China and the short-term fluctuations have strong positive effect on the development;the Granger causality test indicates that the logistics industry is in uni-directional causal relationships with the first and secondary industries and bi-directional with the tertiary industries. |
| |
| Keywords: | logistics industry tertiary industries co-integration test Granger causality test vector error correction model |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
|
