Information rigidity in growth forecasts: Some cross-country evidence |
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Authors: | Prakash Loungani Herman Stekler Natalia Tamirisa |
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Institution: | 1. International Monetary Fund, 700 19th St., N.W., Washington, DC, 20431, United States;2. George Washington University, Department of Economics, 2115 G Street, N.W., Monroe Hall 340, Washington, DC, United States |
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Abstract: | We document information rigidity in forecasts of real GDP growth in 46 countries over the past two decades. We also investigate: (i) whether rigidities differ across countries, particularly between advanced countries and emerging markets; (ii) whether rigidities are lower around turning points in the economy, such as in times of recessions and crises; and (iii) how quickly forecasters incorporate news about growth in other countries into their growth forecasts, with a focus on the way in which advanced countries’ growth forecasts incorporate news about emerging market growth, and vice versa. |
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Keywords: | Efficiency Turning points Cross-country forecasts |
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