粮食安全视域下黄河流域农业生态经济耦合协调发展及驱动机制研究

目的 黄河流域构成中国重要的生态屏障,也是农业经济开发的重点地区,研究其农业生态经济系统的耦合协调性,对维护国家粮食安全、促进黄河流域可持续发展具有重要作用。方法 文章以黄河流域60个城市为研究对象,采用熵权法、耦合协调度模型、灰色关联度模型定量分析了农业生态系统与农业经济系统的综合评价指数、耦合协调度及其驱动机制。结果 2008—2020年黄河流域农业生态系统、农业经济系统的综合评价指数均值呈上升变化态势,两者的对比关系由“经济滞后型”演变为“生态滞后型”。耦合协调水平总体随时间增长,由轻度失调转为濒临失调,空间上表现为下游>中游>上游的分布格局。驱动因素的作用强度按农业现代化水平、城镇化水平、农业经济发展水平、区域本底条件、人类活动强度、政策管理决策的次序递减,并共同推动生成了驱动机制。结论 黄河流域农业生态经济的耦合协调程度仍有待提升,今后将针对典型地区的具体情况对农业生态经济耦合协调的内在机制、实现路径开展研究。

RESEARCH ON COUPLING COORDINATED DEVELOPMENT AND ITS DRIVING MECHANISM OF AGRICULTURAL ECOLOGICAL-ECONOMIC SYSTEM IN THE YELLOW RIVER BASIN UNDER THE PERSPECTIVE OF FOOD SECURITY

The Yellow River Basin constitutes an important ecological barrier in China, and is also a key area of agricultural economic development. Studying the coupling and coordination of its agricultural ecological-economic system plays an important role in ensuring national food security and promoting the sustainable development of the Yellow River Basin. Taking 60 cities in the Yellow River Basin, this paper used the entropy weight method, the coupling and coordination degree model and the degree of grey incidence model to quantitatively analyze the comprehensive evaluation index, the coupling and coordination degree and the driving mechanism of agricultural ecological-economic system. The results were showed as follows. From 2008 to 2020, the average comprehensive evaluation index of the agricultural ecosystem and the agricultural economic system in the Yellow River Basin was both increasing and changing. The comparative relationship between the two systems had evolved from "economic lag" to "ecological lag type". The coupling coordination level generally increased with time, changing from mild disorder to near disorder. And it spatially showed a distribution pattern of downstream> midstream> upstream. The role intensity of driving factors decreased according to the order of agricultural modernization level, urbanization level, the level of agricultural economic development, regional background conditions, the intensity of human activities, and policy management decisions. And they jointly promoted the generation of driving mechanism. In summary, there is still room for progress in the coupling and coordination degree of agricultural ecological economy in the Yellow River Basin. In the future, the internal mechanism and realization path of agricultural ecological economy coupling and coordination will be carried out according to the specific situation of typical areas.