我国经济增长因素的边限协整分析

为了更好地测定我国经济增长和其影响因素之间的关系,在建立了无约束误差修正模型的基础上,运用边限检验方法进行了实证研究。实证结果表明,中国经济增长与其影响因素之间存在长期稳定关系,不同影响因素对中国经济增长有不同的影响。从长期看,劳动力投入、城市化率、非国有化率、资本存量和第一产业比重的影响作用显著,在短期内,劳动力投入、第三产业比重、城市化率和资本存量对中国经济增长都有显著影响。

A Bounds-Testing Empirical Study of the Influencing Factors for Economic Growth in China

In order to forecast the relation of economic growth of China and its Influencing factors,based on the unrestricted error-correction model,we have used bounds testing to carry out empirical studies.The results verify that there is a long-run equilibrium relationship between economic growth and its determinants,and the different influencing factors have different impacts on the economic growth in China.In the long run,labor input、urbanization、the rate of non-nationalization、capital stock and the proportion of primary industry have a positive effect on the economic growth;in the short run,labor input、the proportion of the tertiary industry、urbanization and capital stock are found to be significant.