Short-run maquiladora employment dynamics

The Ciudad Juárez maquiladora sector has grown enormously during the last three decades. To examine whether the trends underlying this remarkable performance are quantifiable, this paper analyzes the short-term time series characteristics of this portion of the metropolitan economy. The econometric methodologies employed include both univariate and transfer functions, with the latter using autoregressive integrated moving average analysis augmented by causality testing. Data are drawn for the sample period of January 1981 to December 1998. Empirical results indicate that inflation-adjusted wage rates, factories in operation, U.S. industrial performance, and the international value of the peso play important roles in determining month-to-month fluctuations in borderplex maquiladora payrolls.Financial support for this research was provided by El Paso Electric, the Fulbright Council for International Exchange of Scholars, and the Public Policy Research Center at the University of Texas at El Paso. Helpful comments were provided by Jeff Brannon, Jim Peach, and seminar participants at the University of Texas at El Paso, Universidad Autónoma de Ciudad Juárez, and New Mexico State University. Econometric research assistance was provided by Roberto Coronado and Roberto Tinajero.