| 基于实物期权方法的铁路预留双线项目评估 |
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| 引用本文： | 郝成,程功. 基于实物期权方法的铁路预留双线项目评估[J]. 铁道运输与经济, 2005, 27(3): 16-18 |
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| 作者姓名： | 郝成 程功 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 北京交通大学,经济管理学院,北京,100044
2. 天津大学,经济管理学院,天津,300072 |
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| 摘 要： | 铁路项目财务评价在项目决策中具有重要作用,针对铁路预留双线项目的财务评价问题,对目前采用的净现值法进行分析,引入实物期权思想,充分考虑铁路双线建设时间的不确定性,在Black-Scholes公式基础上建立铁路预留双线项目评估模型,并利用该模型对某铁路项目进行案例分析和验证。
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| 关 键 词： | 铁路 双线 投资模型 实物期权 评估 |
| 文章编号： | 1003-1421(2005)03-0016-03 |
| 修稿时间： | 2004-10-26 |
Evaluation of Reserved Double Line Project based on Real Option Method |
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| HAO Cheng,Cheng Gong. Evaluation of Reserved Double Line Project based on Real Option Method[J]. Rail Way Transport and Economy, 2005, 27(3): 16-18 |
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| Authors: | HAO Cheng Cheng Gong |
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| Affiliation: | HAO Cheng1,CHENG Gong2 |
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| Abstract: | The financial evaluation plays an important role in the decision- making of railway projects. Regarding the financial evaluation of reserved double line project, the paper carries out an analysis to the currently applied "net present value method" and introduces the thoughts of "real option" to fully consider the uncertainty of time for railway double line construction. Based on Black-Scholes formula, the evaluation model of reserved double line is established. This model is utilized for the case study and verification of one railway project. |
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| Keywords: | railway double line investment model real option evaluation |
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