Population growth in U.S. counties, 1840–1990

We examine the location and growth of the U.S. population using county-level census data from 1840 and 1990. Natural characteristics (e.g., access to water transportation) heavily influenced where populations located in 1840, and produced characteristics in existence in 1840 (e.g., educational infrastructure) had a significant influence on subsequent growth. Evidence of population convergence appears only when the most-heavily-populated counties in 1840 are excluded from the sample. Moreover, when counties located on the western frontier are excluded from the full sample, on the assumption that they were relatively far from their steady-state populations, there is evidence of population divergence.