新一轮退耕还林对农户收入影响的机理研究 ——基于赣南、鄂北农户调查的实证分析

研究目的：新一轮退耕还林补助资金即将到期之际，分析新一轮退耕还林对农户家庭收入的净效应并揭示其内在机制。研究方法：理论上阐述了新一轮退耕还林政策促进农户收入增长的作用机理，基于赣南、鄂北地区农户调查数据，利用倾向得分匹配法进行实证分析。研究结果：（1）无论是否包含退耕补贴，新一轮退耕还林政策对农户收入有正向影响；（2）退耕林种对农户收入的作用机理不同：种植经济林的农户增加了林果业收入和非农经营收入，减少了工资性收入；种植生态林的农户通过提高工资性收入，进而提高总收入水平。研究结论：新一轮退耕还林加快了农户生计转型的进程。政策实施5年后，农户形成与生态环境相适应且稳定的生产方式，为补偿政策的逐步退出创造有利条件，实现了新一轮退耕还林政策的造血功能。

Research on the Impact Mechanism of the New Round of Sloping Land Conversion Program on Rural Household Income: Based on Rural Household Surveys in South Jiangxi and North Hubei Provinces

The purpose of this paper is to explore the rural household income impacts of the New Round of Sloping Land Conversion Program based on rural household surveys in south Jiangxi and north Hubei provinces, as the New Round of Sloping Land Conversion Program has the dual aims of environment improvement and rural welfare better off and the economic wellbeing is added in this New Round compared with the Former Round. The method of propensity score match (PSM) is used in this paper. The results showed that the New Round of Sloping Land Conversion Program has the positive impacts on rural livelihoods regardless of whether the compensation is counted or not. Two mechanisms are shown in the impact approach. Those who converted their crop land into land of cash trees have their income improved from the cash trees, while those who converted their crop land into land of forests for public benefits (non-cash trees) have their income increased from the enhanced wages. In conclusion, the voluntariness is very important in implementing the New Round of Sloping Land Conversion Program so that the rural households could select a type of trees to plant, which could accommodate their own conditions and get them better off in their own ways. Additionally, the compensation fund itself becomes less important once rural livelihoods are transformed by the program.