组合预测模型在区域物流需求预测中的应用

针对单一预测方法用于区域物流需求量预测存在的不足,文章提出了基于预测有效度的组合预测模型,即通过组合多个单一模型的预测结果,发挥各自的优点,提高预测的精确度。以广东省江门市为例,分别采用线性回归模型、灰色GM(1,1)模型和组合预测模型对其物流需求量进行了预测,实证结果表明区域物流需求组合预测模型能够取得更高的预测精度。

A NOVEL COMBINED FORECASTING MODEL FOR THE PREDICTION OF REGIONAL LOGISTICS DEMANG

In view of the weaknesses of simplex forecasting method for the prediction of regional logistics demand, a novel and more effective forecasting method called combination forecasting model based on forecasting effective measure algorithm is developed in this paper, which can remarkably improve the forecasting ability through combining multiple simplex forecasting methods' results and take the full use of their advantages meanwhile overcoming their shortcomings to some degree. Using the relevant data of Jiangmen, Guangdong province, linear regression, GM (1, 1) model and the combination forecasting model are introduced to forecast the regional logistics demand, which illustrates the proposed combined forecasting model for the prediction of regional logistics demand is effective and valid.