个人住房抵押贷款违约风险影响因素实证研究-以杭州市为例

随着银行个人住房抵押贷款余额的快速上升,个人住房抵押贷款违约风险日益成为人们关注和研究的焦点。本文应用杭州市某国有商业银行信贷数据,采用Logistic模型实证研究发现影响当前个人住房抵押贷款的违约因素按重要性排序依次为:是否为当地人、贷款价值比、期房还是现房、月还款额占家庭月收入的比例、还款方式、家庭收入和建筑面积。本文进一步应用不完全合同理论解释了结论背后的制度含义,并提出了相应的治理措施。

AN EMPIRICAL STUDY OF THE FACTORS INFLUENCING RESIDENTIAL MORTGAGE DEFAULTS:THE CASE OF HANGZHOU

AS THE SIZE OF RESIDENTIAL MORTGAGE LOANS INCREASES,DEFAULT RISKS ARE BECOMING A SE-RIOUS CONCERN IN THE INDUSTRY.THIS PAPER USES A HANGZHOU COMMERCIAL BANK'S RESIDENTIAL MORTGAGE DATA TO STUDY THE FACTORS INFLUENCING RESIDENTIAL MORTGAGE DEFAULTS.WE FIND THAT A PERSON'LOCAL RESIDENTIAL STATUS,LOAN-VALUE RATIO,TIMING OF DELIVERY,PAYMENT-INCOME RATIO,MODE OF REPAY-MENT,FAMILY INCOME,AND THE AREA OF THE APARTMENT ARE IMPORTANT FACTORS INFLUENCING THE DEFAULT RATE.WE TRY TO EXPLAIN OUR FINDINGS BY THE INCOMPLE...