河北省农民收入影响因素分析

2019年中央一号文件提出,2019—2020年是全面建成小康社会的决胜期,"三农"领域有不少必须完成的硬任务,必须坚持把解决好"三农"问题作为全党工作的重中之重不动摇。而解决"三农"问题的核心是增加农民收入,增加农民收入是河北省经济发展中的一个重要问题。本文首先通过观察2003—2018年河北省农民人均可支配收入状况,收集基本数据,确定城镇化水平、农产品人均占有量、农产品生产价格指数和农村人均消费支出四个影响因素;其次运用计量经济学模型和Eviews8.0软件进行分析和检验;最后根据拟合后的计量模型,得到农民人均可支配收入与农村人均消费支出和城镇化水平两个指标都成明显正相关关系:在其他指标不变时,农村人均消费支出每增加1元、城镇化水平每提升8%,农民人均可支配收入就分别增加0.88元和129.11元。本文根据所得结论提出了对策及建议,并结合实际为河北省农民增收探索新途径。

Analysis of Factors Affecting Farmers'Income in Hebei Province

The No.1 Central Document of 2019 proposed that 2019-2020 is the decisive period for the comprehensive construction of a well-off society.There are many hard tasks that must be completed in the"three rural"areas.We must persist in solving the"three rural areas"issue as a top priority for the work of the entire party.The weight is unwavering,and the core of solving the"three rural issues"is to increase farmers'income.Increasing farmers'income is an important issue in the economic development of Hebei Province.This article first observes the per capita disposable income of farmers in Hebei Province 2003-2018,collects basic data,and determines the four influencing factors of urbanization level,agricultural product per capita occupation,agricultural product price index,and ruralper capita consumption expenditure;secondly,it uses econometrics The model and Eviews 8.0 software are used for analysis and testing.Finally,according to the fitted econometric model,it is obtained that the per capita disposable income of farmers has a significant positive correlation with the two indicators of rural per capita consumption expenditure and urbanization level:unchanged in other indicators,when the per capita consumption expenditure and urbanization level in rural areas increased by 1 unit,the per capita disposable income of farmers increased by 0.88 yuan and 129.11 yuan,respectively.This article proposes countermeasures and recommendations based on the conclusions,and explores new ways to increase farmers'income in Hebei Province based on actual conditions.