基于空间回归分析的滨海湿地演变驱动机制研究 ——以江苏省滨海三市为例

研究目的:探索滨海湿地演变驱动力及驱动机制,揭示各驱动因子变化趋势及其对滨海湿地演变影响程度,丰富和发展湿地演变驱动机制理论研究。研究方法:以1996年第一次全国土地详查、2005年变更调查及2015年第二次全国土地调查变更调查数据为基础,采用计量经济学方法——空间回归分析模型方法构建滨海湿地演变驱动模型。研究结果:(1)1996—2015年,河流、海洋动力作用持续并逐步减弱,社会经济因素由受常住人口影响逐步变为受产业结构影响;政策因素由2005年受土地整理规模和建设用地规模影响转变为2015年受建设用地规模影响;区位因素由1996年受距区域经济中心、区内城市中心和海岸线远近影响转变为2005年受距区内城市中心远近影响,2015年转变为距受区域经济中心和区内城市中心远近影响。(2)1996年江苏省滨海湿地驱动力作用强弱依次为区位海岸线变化社会经济;2005年依次为海岸线变化政策社会经济区位;2015年依次为政策社会经济区位海岸线变化。研究结论:在江苏省滨海地区滨海湿地演变受河流、海洋动力作用、社会经济因素、政策因素和区位因素共同作用。就其影响力而言,海岸线变化和区位因素对滨海湿地的影响逐步减弱,政策和社会经济因素对滨海湿地影响逐步增强,政策的影响力正逐步凸显。

Driving Mechanism of Coastal Wetlands Evolution based on Spatial Regression Analysis: Taking Jiangsu Coastal Region as an Example

The purpose of the paper is to explore the driving forces and internal mechanism of coastal wetlands evolution and reveal the changing trend of driving factors and their effects based on the data from the First National Land Survey in and the National Land Use Change Survey in 2005 and 2015. This study proposed the evolution models of coastal wetland in light of the spatial analysis model. The results indicate that: firstly, the evolution process of coastal wetland driving forces is figured out. In the period of 1996-2015, the effect of the river and ocean dynamics gradually declined, the most influential socio-economic factors transformed from the resident population to the industrial structure. The policy factors changed from the amount of land consolidation and construction land to the amount of construction land during 2005-2015. As for the location factors, in 1996, the significant impact factors were the distance to the regional economic center, the distance to the city centers and the distance to the coastline. In 2005, the most significant factor was only the distance to the city centers, however, in 2015, the factors were the distance to the regional economic centers and the distance to the city centers. Secondly, sorted from strong to weak order of the driving forces of wetland in Jiangsu coastal areas, in 1996, the order was location> coastline changes> socio-economic factors; in 2005, the order was coastline changes> policy> socioeconomic factors> location; in 2015, the order was policy> socio-economic factors> location> coastline changes. In conclusion, the evolution of coastal wetlands in Jiangsu coastal areas is influenced by the dynamics of rivers and ocean, socio-economic factors, policy factors and location. The effects of the coastline changes and the location weaken gradually. The effects of the policy and socio-economic factors gradually strengthen. The effect of the policy on the coastal wetland gradually highlights.