| 中国能源需求的估计与预测模拟 |
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| 引用本文： | 刘兰凤,易行健.中国能源需求的估计与预测模拟[J].上海财经大学学报,2008,10(4):84-91. |
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| 作者姓名： | 刘兰凤 易行健 |
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| 作者单位： | 广东外语外贸大学国际经贸学院,广东广州510006 |
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| 基金项目： | 广东外语外贸大学校科研和校改项目，广东省酱通高校人文社会科学重点研究基地创新团队基金 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文模拟了1953-2005年间中国的能源需求函数，并在模拟基础上进行预测分析。研究结果表明：20世纪80年代以后，中国的能源使用效率明显提高，但中国的能源使用效率对能源需求的影响小于国民收入对能源需求的影响；另外，中国人口也是影响能源需求的一个显著因素，能源价格对能源需求的影响不显著；最后，在对中国长期能源需求进行了预测和模拟的基础上为中国未来一段时期内减缓能源需求增长提出了政策建议。
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| 关 键 词： | 能源需求 误差修正模型 可变参数模型 能源使用效率 |
An Estimation and Forecast Simulation of Energy Demand in China |
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| LIU Lan-feng,YI Xing-jian.An Estimation and Forecast Simulation of Energy Demand in China[J].Journal of Shanghai University of Finance and Economics,2008,10(4):84-91. |
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| Authors: | LIU Lan-feng YI Xing-jian |
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| Institution: | (School of International Trade and Economics, Guang University of Foreign Studies, Guang Zhou 510006, China) |
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| Abstract: | This paper estimates the energy demand in China between 1953 and 2005 by using error correction model and time-varying parameter model and then forecasts the energy demand.The results reveal that energy efficiency of China has been improved obviously since the 1980s,and the income elasticity of energy demand is bigger than the efficiency elasticity of energy demand in China.In addition,the population in China is a significant factor that affects energy demand,but energy price in China doesn't have a significant impact on energy demand.In the end,based on the empirical analysisof China's energy demand in the long run,this paper also puts forward some policy suggestions on energy policy in China. |
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| Keywords: | energy demand error correction model time-varying parameter model energy use efficiency |
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