我国房地产上市公司财务预警研究

文章主要通过建立适合于我国房地产上市公司的财务预警模型来研究房地产企业的财务风险.首先,对财务预警模型的解释变量进行筛选,以我国1998—2010年房地产上市公司为研究对象,选取了48家ST公司和48家财务正常公司为样本,对入选解释变量进行了逐步筛选;其次,对于构建的3个Logistic模型进行分析比较,选取预测率较高的模型;最后,对获得的预警模型进行有效性分析,基于样本公司从前一年至前四年的财务数据进行返回预测检验,表明该模型预测的总准确率分别为:93.8%、89.6%、73.4%、65.6%.

A Study on Financial Warning in Chinese Listed Real Estate Companies

This paper studies on financial warning in listed real estate companies through establishing a financial warning model which is fit for Chinese listed real estate companies.Firstly,this paper selects independent variables of models,and uses listed real estate companies between 1998 and 2010 as research objects.Then it chooses 48 ST companies and 48 financial normal companies as samples,and makes the stepwise selection among selected independent variables.Secondly,this paper compares the three established logistic models,and chooses the model which has a higher predictive value.In the end,this paper analyzes the efficiency of the achieved financial warning model.Through back-prediction-testing of sample’s financial data of the past four years,this paper finds that the model’s total predicting correct rate is 93.8%,89.6%,73.4%,65.6% respectively.