| 生态文明建设与皖江城市带发展——基于系统动力学的分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 邢小军,孙利娟.生态文明建设与皖江城市带发展——基于系统动力学的分析[J].铜陵学院学报,2014(3):60-64. |
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| 作者姓名： | 邢小军 孙利娟 |
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| 作者单位： | 安徽财经大学,安徽蚌埠233030 |
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| 基金项目： | 安徽省哲学社会科学规划项目“生态文明与皖江城市带产业升级途径选择”（AHSK11-12D12）;安徽高校省级自然科学研究项目“皖北地区农业与旅游业融合发展研究”（KJ2013B004） |
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| 摘 要： | 文章利用系统动力学方法,建立包括经济、能源、环境和社会等四个子系统的动力学模型,利用Vensim软件对皖江城市带的近期和远期发展进行模拟分析,发现：资本能显著影响皖江城市带近期的经济发展,但科技和教育在远期的影响更大；消费水平是决定人口迁徙的主要原因；在缺乏产业大规模向外转移的情况下,皖江城市带的经济发展和环境保护存在一定的冲突,需要管理部门进行平衡,以更好促进皖江城市带生态文明建设。
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| 关 键 词： | 皖江城市带 生态文明 可持续发展 产业转移 |
Ecology Civilization Construction and Wanjiang Urban Belt Development---Analysis based on System Dynamics |
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| Xing Xiao-jun,Sun Li-juan.Ecology Civilization Construction and Wanjiang Urban Belt Development---Analysis based on System Dynamics[J].Journal of Tongling College,2014(3):60-64. |
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| Authors: | Xing Xiao-jun Sun Li-juan |
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| Institution: | (Anhui University of Finance and Economics, Bengbu Anhui 233030, China) |
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| Abstract: | This paper uses system dynamics method to construct system dynamics model including economy, energy,environment and society subsystems, and uses Vensim software to emulate recent and forward development of Wan-jiang Urban Belt.The results show that capital can significently affect recent economy development of Wan-jiang Urban Belt, but tecology and education can impose more influence on forward economy development of Wan-jiang Urban Belt, Consumption levels is the primary factor to affect the population migration, without outward transfer of industries, Wan-jiang Urban Belt has a confliction between economy development and environment potection, which need to be balanced by management department to accelerate ecology civilization construction of Wan-jiang Urban Belt. |
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| Keywords: | Wan-jiang urban belt ecology civilization sustainable development industry transfer |
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