江苏省出口贸易结构变迁对就业的影响效应研究

本文首先采用苏振东等提出的方法构造出江苏省出口贸易结构指数，分析其变动情况，并在此基础上运用协整模型分析了江苏省出口贸易结构变迁对就业增长的影响。分析结果显示：从出口总量层面来看，出口总额增长拉动就业，而高附加值商品出口减少就业，低附加值产品出口的就业效应为正，但低附加值产品出口所带来的就业正效应能够抵消高附加值产品出口的就业负效应。最后文章提出了进一步扩大出口贸易拉动就业增长的对策建议。

The Effect of Export Trade Structure Change on Employment in Jiangsu

At first, this paper use the method of Su Zhendong constructs the index of the export trade strueture of Jiangsu, the results showed that from 1992 to 2011 in Jiangsu, export trade structure change can be roughly divided into three stages. And then using eointegration model analyzes the export trade structure change influence on employment growth, the analysis results show： from total exports level, the increase of total exports, with pulling effect on employment growth, from the component level, the export of high value-added products employment effect is negative, low value-added products export employment effect is positive, but the low value- added products export＇s employment positive effect can offset the high value-added products exports＇s negative effects of employment. At the end of the paper puts forward several policy suggestions to expand export in order to pull employment increase.