中国西南边疆山区粮食综合生产能力的影响因子分析——以云南省为例

根据云南省1996~2006年的耕地资源和社会经济统计数据,利用主成分分析方法分析云南省粮食生产能力的主要影响因素。结果表明,耕地资源禀赋对粮食生产的贡献率是80.28%,经济投入水平对粮食生产的贡献率是11.88%,说明耕地资源禀赋因素是影响云南省粮食生产能力的首要因素,经济投入水平次之。耕地资源禀赋对粮食生产的约束作用主要体现为耕地数量的多少和耕地质量的优劣。为了保障边疆山区省份的粮食安全,需要坚定不移地保护有限的耕地资源,大力改造和提高耕地资源质量,积极改善农业生产的基础条件,努力增大经济技术投入水平。

Influential Factor Analysis on the Comprehensive Capacity of Grain Production in Southwest Frontier Mountainous Area in China-A Case study in Yunnan

According to the statistics of cultivated land resources and social economy of Yunnan province in recent 11 years(1996~2006),the paper analyses the main influential factors of grain production capacity in Yunnan by using principal-component analysis.The results indicate that cultivated land resource endowment has 80.28% contribution to grain production,and the contribution of economic investment is 11.88%.Therefore,cultivated land resource endowment is the principal factor affecting grain production capacity of Yunnan,with economic investment in the second place.The restriction effects of cultivated land resource to grain production mainly depend on the quantity and quality of cultivated land.To ensure the grain security of frontier mountainous province,it is necessary to protect limited cultivated land resources continuously,greatly increase their quality,actively improve agricultural production infrastructure,and increase economic investment.