有效汇率波动对国内价格的传递效应研究

随着我国对外贸易依存度的不断提高,外需成为拉动经济增长的重要动力。人民币相对于美元升值和国内面临的通货膨胀问题受到了国内舆论和国际社会的广泛关注。那么人民币名义有效汇率的变动是否就是国内通货膨胀的主要原因呢?本文利用VAR模型对人民币名义有效汇率的价格传递效应进行了实证分析。估计结果表明,人民币名义有效汇率对进口价格和工业品出厂价格的传递率较高,而对消费者价格的传递率则相对较低,汇率对国内通货膨胀有较弱的解释力。因此本文认为,通过调节人民币名义有效汇率对解决中国的外部失衡有一定的作用,货币政策制度者应当积极关注汇率变动等外部冲击。

Pass-through Effect of the Change of RMB's Norminal Effective Exchange Rate on Domestic Price

With the increasing of dependence on foreign trade,foreign demand has played an important role to enhance China's economic development.The appreciation of Renminbi(RMB)against dollar and the China domestic inflation attract more and more attentions of domestic and international community.Whether the changes of Nominal Effective Exchange Rate(NEER)of RMB are really main factors to force domestic inflation This paper develops an empirical study on the Pass-Throgh Effect of NEER of RMB by utilizing VAR model.T...