消费需求与经济增长关系的计量经济分析

消费需求是拉动经济增长的三驾马车之一,足以说明消费需求在经济增长中的重要地位.改革开放以来,伴随国民经济的快速发展和消费者收入的增加,我国的消费总量呈现出显著增加的趋势,消费结构得到不断的优化.本文基于计量经济学的基本理论,依据消费需求与经济增长之间的辨证关系,选用1978年以来我国经济发展和消费需求的32年数据,使用不同的计量经济方法,从经济增长的因素分析、经济增长对消费需求的影响和消费需求对经济增长的影响三个方面验证了消费需求与经济增长之间的数量关系和相互影响作用,同时利用格兰杰因果关系检验的方法确认了消费需求与经济增长之间互为因果的影响关系.数量关系的确立,为探求二者之间的变化趋势,进行科学决策提供了数量依据.

An Econometric Analysis on the Relationship between Consumer Demand and Economic Growth

Consumer demand is driving economic growth,one of the troika,illustrates the growth in consumer demand in economic importance.Since reform and opening,with the rapid development of the national economy and consumer income increases,consumption in China showed a significant increase,consumption structure has been continuously optimized.Based on the basic theory of econometrics,consumer demand and economic growth based on the dialectical relationship between,the choice of China’s economic development since 1978 of 32 years and consumer demand data,using different econometric methods,from economic growth in factor analysis,economic growth,the impact on consumer demand and consumer demand in the three aspects of economic growth and consumer demand validated quantitative relationship between economic growth and mutual influence,while taking advantage of the method of Granger causality test confirmed that consumer demand and reciprocal causation between economic growth,the impact of relationship.Establishment of quantitative relationship,the search for trends between the two,to provide a quantitative basis for scientific decision-making.