基于灰色关联分析的国内旅游收入影响因素研究

根据1994-2008年我国旅游业数据,应用灰色系统理论中的灰色关联分析法,以灰色综合关联度为量度指标,对影响国内旅游收入的相关因素进行分析。从1994-2000年和2001-2008年两个时期的对比结果可以看出,影响国内旅游收入的主导因素是:城镇居民家庭人均可支配收入、职工年平均工资和人均国内生产总值。这就从实证的角度揭示了国内旅游收入与各影响因素之间的关联程度及其变化规律,从而为政府在制定国内旅游业发展规划和调整产业结构方面提供科学决策的依据。

Research on the Influence Factors of Domestic Tourism Revenue Based on Gray Relational Analysis

Based on gray relational analysis method of gray system theory and taking the gray comprehensive relational grade as a measurement indicator,this paper analyzes the relevant factors that affect domestic tourism revenue according to China's tourism industry data from 1994 to 2008.The comparative results indicate from the two period of 1994 2000 and 2001-2008 that per capita annual income of urban and rural households,average wage of staff and per capita GDP are the dominant influence factors of domestic tourism revenue.From an empirical perspective,it reveals the relational degree between domestic tourism revenue and each influencing factors,including its changing rule.Thereby it provides a scientific decision-making basis for government which draws up development planning and adjusts the industrial structure of domestic tourism industry.