全球管道天然气贸易节点重要性评价

因各国天然气需求增加,全球天然气贸易局势愈加复杂,本文构建全球管道天然气贸易复杂网络,从静态网络结构特征与动态网络功能维度选取多个指标,运用“熵值法”和“时序加权平均算子”构建节点国家重要性动态综合评价模型,利用2013~2019年全球管道天然气贸易数据进行实证分析。结果表明:从出口视角看,俄罗斯占据核心地位;哈萨克斯坦和挪威等靠近网络中心、出口稳定;荷兰、美国和英国起贸易枢纽作用;阿尔及利亚和加拿大等虽出口量大,但贸易关系单一。德国、法国和中国等国家,受限于能源禀赋,在进口端占据重要地位。美洲、欧洲地区管道天然气贸易流转速率和市场化程度优于中东、亚太和非洲地区。最后,本文提出了优化我国管道天然气进口的相关建议。

Research on Evaluation of Important Nodes in Global Pipeline Natural Gas Trade Network

Due to the increased demand for natural gas in various countries,the global natural gas trade situation is becoming more and more complicated,this article builds the pipeline gas trade complex networks,from the static network structure characteristics and the dynamic network function dimension to select multiple indicators,using“entropy evaluation method”and“timing weighted average operator”building a node dynamic comprehensive evaluation model of national importance,then the global pipeline gas trade data from 2013 to 2019 are used for empirical analysis.The results show that:from the perspective of export,Russia occupies the core position.Kazakhstan and Norway are close to the network center and have stable exports;the Netherlands,the United States,and Britain are trading hubs.Countries such as Algeria and Canada are big exporters,but trade relations are unitary.Countries such as Germany,France and China,limited by their energy endowments,play an important role in the import end.The flow rate and marketization degree of pipeline natural gas trade in Americas and Europe are better than those in the Middle East,Asia Pacific and Africa.Finally,this paper puts forward some suggestions for optimizing pipeline natural gas import in China.