How did increased competition affect credit ratings? |
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Authors: | Bo Becker Todd Milbourn |
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Institution: | a Harvard Business School, Baker Library, Bloomberg Center 349, Boston, MA 02163, United States b Olin Business School, Washington University at St Louis, One Brookings Drive, St Louis, MO 63130, United States |
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Abstract: | The credit rating industry has historically been dominated by just two agencies, Moody's and Standard & Poor's, leading to long-standing legislative and regulatory calls for increased competition. The material entry of a third rating agency (Fitch) to the competitive landscape offers a unique experiment to empirically examine how increased competition affects the credit ratings market. What we find is relatively troubling. Specifically, we discover that increased competition from Fitch coincides with lower quality ratings from the incumbents: Rating levels went up, the correlation between ratings and market-implied yields fell, and the ability of ratings to predict default deteriorated. We offer several possible explanations for these findings that are linked to existing theories. |
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Keywords: | D43 G24 L14 L15 |
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