人口年龄结构视角下的贸易失衡研究

贸易失衡与人口老龄化是当前全球也是中国面临的两个重要的经济社会现象。根据生命周期理论、理性预期理论和国际收支吸收分析法等相关理论,建立出人口年龄结构对贸易收支影响的基本计量模型,并运用中国1994年—2009年的省(地区)际面板数据进行实证检验发现:少儿人口的增加有抑制贸易失衡的作用,但人口老龄化程度的加深加剧贸易收支的波动。今后,要建立健全适合中国国情的养老保障体系,鼓励增加少儿培育的投入,扩大内需、减少贸易收支的不平衡。

Research on Trade Imbalance from the Perspective of Population Age Structure

Trade imbalances and the aging of the population are two most important economic and social phenomena which the world and China are faced with .According to the related theories of the life cycle , rational expectations and absorption approach of the international balance of payment , establishing a basic measurement model of the effect of population age structure on the trade balance , and using the province （ area） ’ s Panel Data in China from 1994 to 2009 .The results of empirical analysis show that：the children population growth restrains the trade imbal-ance, but the deepening degree of population aging intensifies the trade balance volatility .In the future, China should establish a suitable pension system , encourage investment for children ’ s cultivatation, and expand domestic demand to reduce trade imbalance .