Standard deviations implied in option prices as predictors of future stock price variability

Standard deviations implied in option prices have recently been introduced as being better than average predictors of future stock price variability. This article specifically studies the predictive ability of implicit standard deviations, taking into account the dividend problem and the problem of optimal weighting schemes of the standard deviations when there are several options on the same stock. Transaction data information was used to study the importance of non-simultaneities in observing stock and option prices.