基于商品技术分类的我国贸易条件的测算与影响因素研究

本文以1981-2011年主要进出口商品数量与金额数据为基础,分别对我国总贸易条件及基于Lall(2000)分类法为依据的分类商品的贸易条件进行计算,并对贸易条件的各影响因素进行实证分析。结果表明,一国的经济水平、FDI、劳动生产率及高技术产品出口的比重对贸易条件有显著影响。经济水平的提升、实际利用的FDI的增加是贸易条件改善的主要因素;就目前我国技术水平来说,劳动生产率的提高,高技术产品出口比重的加大并不能引起我国贸易条件的改善。

China trade condition's measurement and influence factor research based on commodity technology classify

Based on the number and amount of the main export -import commodities in 1981 -2011, this paper calculates China＇s total trade conditions and classi- fication commodity＇s terms of trade by the method of Lall （2000） taxonomy respectively, and made the empir- ical analysis of several factors of terms of trade. The results showed that the level of a country＇s economy, FDI, labor productivity and the proportion of high- tech products＂ export have a significant effect with terms of trade. Enhance of the economic level, increase of the actual utilization of FDI are major factors in improving the terms of trade, and the effect degree in different quintiles levels of the terms of trade are more stable; On the current level of technology, the improvement of labor productivity, increasing the pro- portion of high-tech products＂ exports did not cause improvement in the terms of trade, and the effect de- gree in different quintiles levels of the terms of trade are varied.