| 基于傅里叶级数的铁路客运量预测研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 于俊,陈国华.基于傅里叶级数的铁路客运量预测研究[J].铁道运输与经济,2011,33(2):92-94. |
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| 作者姓名： | 于俊 陈国华 |
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| 作者单位： | 湖南人文科技学院,数学系,湖南,娄底,417000 |
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| 基金项目： | 湖南人文科技学院博士启动基金(湖南省教育厅资助教改项目湘教通[2009]321文件) |
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| 摘 要： | 基于傅里叶级数预测模型,以我国2004—2009年铁路客运量为数据基础,通过将时间序列划分为趋势性与季节性部分,分别采用最小二乘法与傅里叶级数法对两者进行拟合,应用Matlab软件编程,求出预测模型,并进行客运量预测。通过对预测结果的误差分析,结果表明:采用傅里叶级数预测法预测我国铁路客运量的效果较好。
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| 关 键 词： | 铁路客运量 傅里叶级数 预测模型 |
Forecast of Railway Passenger Traffic Volume Based on Fourier Series |
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| YU Jun,CHEN Guo-hua.Forecast of Railway Passenger Traffic Volume Based on Fourier Series[J].Rail Way Transport and Economy,2011,33(2):92-94. |
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| Authors: | YU Jun CHEN Guo-hua |
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| Institution: | YU Jun,CHEN Guo-hua(Mathematics Department,Hunan Institute of Humanities,Science and Technology,Loudi 417000,Hunan,China) |
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| Abstract: | Based on the Fourier series forecast model and the railway passenger traffic data from 2004 to 2009,the time series are classified as tendency series and seasonal series,which are fitted respectively by minimum squares method and Fourier series.Matlab is used to establish the forecast model so as to forecast the passenger traffic volume.By analyzing the error of forecast result,it is proved that Fourier series is a better choice to forecast the railway passenger traffic volume of China. |
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| Keywords: | Railway Passenger Traffic Volume Fourier Series Forecast Model |
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