减免东盟农产品进口关税对中国宏观经济和产业影响的可计算一般均衡分析

Chingem模型是一个中国静态CGE模型.在Chingem模型的基础上,按照中国与东盟达成的"早期收获方案",模拟2006年减免东盟原六国农产品进口关税对中国宏观经济和产业的短期影响.研究表明,减免东盟六国农产品进口关税有利于我国经济增长,其中经济增长的动力来源于就业水平的提高;国内价格水平会下降,如CPI下降了0.11%;出口增长高于进口增长,贸易顺差有增加的趋势;促进了制造业的发展,其中纺织部门受益最大;羊毛部门受纺织业的拉动产出增长,而其它的农业和服务业部门影响轻微.

Tariff Reduction and Exemption of the Agricultural Import from Asian and its Impact on China's Micro Economy and Industry——An Analysis of the Computable General Equilibrium Model

Chingem model is a static CGE model of China.This paper is based on Chingem model and simulates the short-term macro economic and industrial effects of import tariff reduction for agricultural products from the six original members of ASEAN in China according to the Early Harvest Program between China and ASEAN.The research shows that in the short term cutting agriculture tariff to ASEA is conducive to the growth of China's economy.This is in part due to the following factors: increase in employment,the fall in domestic price,(CPI falls by0.11 percent),export volume exceeding import volume,trade surplus likely to increase,the development of the manufacturing sector with the textile being the main beneficiary,the consequent wool industry growth with other sectors of the agriculture and service sector slightly affected...