“一带一路”倡议下中国与西亚贸易潜力研究--基于引力模型的实证分析

西亚地处亚欧非交界地带,自古以来就是丝绸之路的重要组成部分,广泛开展与西亚各国的经贸关系对“一带一路”建设具有重要意义。本文以中国与西亚各国的进出口贸易数据为基础,利用扩展的贸易引力模型分析了中国与西亚各国的贸易潜力,测算了双边贸易效率。实证结果表明:双方人均GDP、西亚各国的人口规模和区域贸易协定可以显著促进双边贸易,双边距离和中国的人口规模会阻碍贸易发展。据此建议中国在与西亚贸易往来时,应注重优化贸易结构、加强区域合作、发展港口运输和基础设施建设以及防范贸易风险。

Research on the Trade Potential Between China and West Asian Countries Under"the Belt and Road"Initiative ——An Empirical Analysis Based on Gravity Model

West Asia is located at the border of Asia,Europe and Africa,and has been an important part of the Silk Road since the ancient times.The development of economic and trade relations with West Asian countries has great significance to the construction of“the Belt and Road”initiative.This paper is based on the data of import and export trade between China and West Asian countries.This paper constructs an extended gravity model to explore the trade potential and efficiency of china and West Asian countries.The regression results show that per capita GDP,population of West Asian countries and RTA can significantly promote bilateral trade,and population of China,distance can hinder the development of trade.Finally,the corresponding policies are put forward:optimizing trade structure,strengthening regional cooperation,develop port transportation and infrastructure,and paying attention to guard against trade risks.