甘肃省乡村振兴发展评价及预测研究

文章采用熵值法和变异系数法对甘肃省乡村振兴发展水平进行客观评价,并借助Matlab2018软件,构建GM(1,1)模型对乡村振兴的未来发展趋势进行预测。研究发现:2010-2017年,甘肃省乡村振兴发展总体上呈明显增长态势,但产业兴旺、生态宜居、治理有效、乡风文明以及生活富裕五方面发展水平存在较大差异,耦合协调性较差,而且发展水平远滞后于我国东部发达地区;治理有效和生活富裕发展速度较为缓慢,是制约甘肃省乡村振兴总体水平提升的关键短板;2018-2025年甘肃省乡村振兴水平将继续朝着持续向好的趋势发展,但乡村振兴的五方面仍没有实现协调发展,治理有效水平仍是关键短板。建议甘肃在着力提高乡村治理水平的同时,大力推动乡村振兴系统各要素耦合协调发展;2022年作为乡村振兴的提速节点,前期应注重补齐乡村发展领域的关键短板,后期应强调提高乡村振兴发展的质量和整体效益。

Evaluation and Prediction of Rural Revitalization Development in Gansu Province

This paper objectively evaluates the development level of rural revitalization in Gansu Province with entropy weight and coefficient of variation method.With the help of MATLAB 2018 software,it constructs the GM(1,1)model so as to predict the fu ture development trend of rural revitalization.The results show that from 2010 to 2017,the rural revitalization development in Gan su Province displayed a clear growth trend in general,but the levels of development were quite different in the five aspects of indus trial prosperity,ecological livability,effective governance,rural civilization,and wealthy life,in which the coupling and coordina tion were not enough and the development level lagged far behind the developed areas in eastern China;effective governance and development speed of a well-off life are slow,both of which were the key shortcomings that limited the overall level of rural revital ization in Gansu Province.From 2018 to 2025,the rural revitalization of Gansu Province continues to develop prosperously,but the coordinated development in the five aspects of rural revitalization have not been achieved.The level of effective governance is still the key weakness.It is advised that Gansu Province should focus on improving the level of effective governance and promoting the coupling and coordination of all elements of the rural revitalization system.In 2022,as a speeding-up node for rural revitalization,it is believed that our attention should be paid to the key shortcomings in the field of rural development in the early stage,and in the later stage,we should emphasize to improve the quality and overall benefits of rural revitalization.